Appendix

Endnotes

1 Estimated on-site emissions from space heating in New York’s single-family homes calculated using EIA 2020 RECs Survey Data, EIA’s household end-use consumption averages by state, and fuel emissions factors from New York State’s 2023 Greenhouse Gas Emissions report.

2 Prevailing practice guards against using good rules of thumb to approximate heat pump sizing, and recommends Manual J sizing be performed. To arrive at heat pump size estimates, we performed Manual J calculations using CoolCalc on 5 random homes from each climate zone that are roughly 1,7500 +/= 100 square feet using Zillow listings. Each zone has one home that is from the 1920s, one from post-2000, and the remainder between the years 1950 to 2000.

There is anecdotal evidence that Manual J sizing may recommend heat pumps that are larger than necessary, even for New York’s cold climate. We examined limited data from the Massachusetts Whole Home Heat Pump Pilot Program, and found that despite being in Climate Zone 5—a cold climate—installed system sizes were all smaller than the high end range for heating mentioned above, despite larger or equally sized homes. Cadmus’s research also suggests that Manual J estimates consistently oversize the necessary heat pump size, even for withstanding cold weather.

3 Based on 3-ton central AC compared to a 3-ton cold-climate heat pump. While equipment size needs vary for each home, a 3-ton system is a sufficient benchmark that represents enough cooling capacity to meet demand in most New York homes up to 1,750 square feet in Climate Zone 4, and more than enough for those in Climate Zones 5 and 6.

4 US EIA and ACEEE While the sizing of any equipment replacement and retrofit will vary depending on a home’s specific circumstances, these combined costs of conventional systems represent what is typical for a 1,750-square-foot home in New York. Data from EIA and ACEE assumes the following equipment sizes and costs: 

• Central AC (36,000 BTU) + Oil Furnace (105,000 BTU): $10,700 – $11,100
• Central AC (36,000 BTU) + Gas Furnace (80,000 BTU): $9,200 – $10,000

5 Estimated total retrofit project costs of $5,000 to $6,000 per ton to install ducted central air source heat pumps was derived from publicly available installation costs from heat pump programs and reports, including projects supported by NYSERDA’s ASHP incentives (2017-2019), MASS CEC Whole Home Pilot Project, TECH CA incentives, ACEEE 2024 study on residential ccHP installation, and projects from NYSERDA’s Hudson Valley Heat Pump Pilot Program. Estimated costs reflect an illustrative average for equipment, labor and includes available program data on potential ancillary work like weatherization, duct or electric improvements. Data filtered where possible for only ducted central air-source residential single family heat pump installations in homes ranging between 1,500 and 2,500 square feet. 

Cost estimates from relevant program data were adjusted for inflation on the average total cost per ton. For each source, the median year of data provided was chosen to calculate inflation from. Inflation from June of the data year to June 2024 was calculated by averaging the HVAC equipment cost inflation rate found from the Federal Reserve Economic Data’s (FRED) Producer Price Index for HVAC and Commercial Refrigeration Equipment and the HVAC contractor labor cost inflation rate found from FRED’s Producer Price Index for Plumbing, Heating and Air-Conditioning Contractors. The average HVAC equipment and labor inflation rate (20XX-2024) was applied to average installation cost per ton values, outputting inflation adjusted values for total installation costs.

6 NYSERDA Clean Heat program rules require that heat pumps be sized for 100-120% of full home heating to be eligible for incentives.

7 Figure 4 assumptions and methodology:

• Estimated gross installation costs (pre-incentive) range from $5,000 – $6,000 per ton after examining program data for similar equipment in California, Massachusetts, and New York, adjusted for inflation. Heat pump installations include the costs for typical ancillary upgrades like envelope, ductwork and electric panel improvements to accommodate a fully-sized heat pump. See Endnote 5 for details on estimates of pre-incentive project costs.
• Market-rate refers to New York State residents that utilize the state’s Clean Heat Program incentives but do not qualify for low-to-moderate income heat pump incentives. While exact market-rate incentives vary by utility, our statewide total project cost estimate of NYS clean heat heat pump incentives included $1,000/ton up to 4 tons and $500/ton for tons 5 and 6, and NYSERDA weatherization and insulation tax credits of $3,000 for the“Better” scenario under the state’s Home Comfort weatherization and insulation package. Total project cost estimates include the application of federal IRA tax credit of $2,000, federal IRA weatherization and insulation tax credit of $1,200.
• Moderate-income refers to total project costs incurred by residents that qualify for EmPower+ incentives, defined as households at or below 80% of the State or Area Median Income (SMI/AMI). Incentives applied for this level include a $2,000 federal IRA tax credit, the federal IRA weatherization and insulation tax credit of $1,200, an EmPower+ rebate of $5,000, a Home Electrification and Appliance Rebate (HEAR) rebate of $8,000 for heat pumps and $1,600 from HEAR for weatherization and insulation.
• Low-income refers to total project costs incurred by residents that qualify for EmPower+ incentives, defined as households at or below 60% of SMI. Incentives applied for this level include a $2,000 federal IRA tax credit, the federal IRA weatherization and insulation tax credit of $1,200, an EmPower+ rebate of $10,000, a Home Electrification and Appliance Rebate (HEAR) rebate of $8,000 and $1,600 from HEAR for weatherization and insulation.
• All estimates based on incentives available as of August 2024.

Reference data table for Figure 4:

Estimated total project costs to install a fully-sized heat pump in a 1,750 sq. ft. New York home compared to conventional heating and cooling replacements.

Heat pump fully sized	Estimated gross installation cost (pre-incentive)	Estimated total project costs with incentives
		Market rate	Moderate-income	Low-income
36,000 BTU	$15,000 – $18,000	$5,800 – $8,800	$0 – $200	$0
48,000 BTU	$20,000 – $24,000	$9,800 – $13,800	$2,200 – $6,200	$0 – $1,200
60,000 BTU	$25,000 – $30,000	$14,300 – $19,300	$7,200 – $12,200	$2,200 – $7,200

8 New York Residential Building Stock Assessment (2019), p. 18.

9 NYSERDA New York Home Heating Oil Price Monitoring Program 2022-2023 average fuel oil costs compared to electricity costs for a cold-climate heat pump operating at 244% efficiency. Source: Calculated using fuel oil and electricity from NYSERDA’s contractor support 2024 EmPower+ Energy Pricing sheet and heat pump COP from NYISO’s 2022 Heat Pump Assessment Study.

10 Joint utilities 2021-2023 SC1 3-year average natural gas costs compared to electricity costs for a cold-climate heat pump operating at 244% efficiency. Source: Calculated using natural gas and electricity costs from NYSERDA’s contractor support 2024 EmPower+ Energy Pricing sheet and heat pump COP from NYISO’s 2022 Heat Pump Assessment Study.

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