Replacing central ACs with heat pumps in New York State’s single-family homes
Original publication by Urban Green Council • October 30, 2024
Replacing central air conditioners (ACs) with heat pumps is a sleeper electrification opportunity for many New York State homes.
About 45 percent of the state’s 5.3 million single-family homes have a central AC distributing cold air through ducts. When an AC fails in those homes, replacing it with a new central heat pump will deliver both cooling and heating through the same ductwork. That new heat pump provides more efficient cooling and can also displace oil, propane or gas used for heating—a win for homeowners and the climate alike.
This “cool switch”—replacing an AC with a cold-climate central heat pump—can be straightforward and strategic. California and Colorado are already pursuing policies to drive central-AC-to-heat-pump swaps. Around 120,000 central ACs capable of cooling single-family homes are sold each year in New York State. Every new AC installed is a missed chance to decarbonize, locking in outdated equipment for 15 years or more. The benefits and barriers in New York State depend on a range of factors, like the climate, the condition of the home, the size of the heat pump and more. But if every New York homeowner replaced their central AC with a heat pump, electrifying winter heating could cut on-site residential sector emissions by up to 30 percent annually.
New York’s Scoping Plan outlines ambitious steps to cut building sector emissions through electrification. The state’s vision to quadruple heat pump sales and achieve two million climate-friendly homes by 2030 is a call to action. In this report, we examine the opportunity, retrofit considerations and costs associated with AC-to-heat-pump swaps. We also detail the policy steps needed to advance this electrification pathway in New York homes so that as all central ACs age or fail, they are replaced with cold-climate heat pumps.
2.4 million
The number of single-family homes in New York State with central ACs that could be replaced by heat pumps as units age or fail.
2 for 1
Central heat pumps cool and heat a home using the same space and ductwork. Some envelope, duct or electric panel work could allow homes to use one piece of equipment for year-round heating and cooling instead of two.
30% reduction
AC-to-heat-pump swaps could reduce on-site GHG emissions from New York’s residential sector by up to 30 percent by eliminating fossil-fuel heating.
Big incentives
Thousands of dollars in incentives can offset all upfront costs for some New Yorkers. For many others, they make AC-to-heat-pump swaps less expensive than the combined cost of an AC and furnace replacement.
In this report
01
The AC replacement opportunity
Every year, New York homeowners replace tens of thousands of central AC units. Each replacement is a potential opportunity to accelerate heating electrification by switching to a central heat pump.
02
AC-to-heat-pump retrofits in New York
In New York, the climate is colder and the buildings are older than in much of the country. These realities are crucial to understanding and scaling central AC-to-heat pump swaps across the state.
03
The cost of AC-to-heat-pump swaps
The cost of swapping central ACs for heat pumps depends on the size of the heat pump and the nature of the retrofit. And generous state incentives can remove some or all of the cost.
04
Accelerating the cool switch in New York
Four policy steps can accelerate this cool switch and advance heating electrification in the 2.4 million homes with central AC in New York.
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Urban Green staff
Project leads
Danielle Manley
Manager, Policy
Chris Halfnight
Senior Director, Research & Policy
Project team
Jack Archambault
Associate Manager, Communications
Aaron Cole
Coordinator, Research
Sheena McDermott
Senior Director, Communications & Development
Adam Schiabor
Manager, Research
Jada Shannon
Associate, Communications