Cool Switch

Replacing central ACs with heat pumps in New York State’s single-family homes

Original publication by Urban Green Council • October 30, 2024

Replacing central air conditioners (ACs) with heat pumps is a sleeper electrification opportunity for many New York State homes.

About 45 percent of the state’s 5.3 million single-family homes have a central AC distributing cold air through ducts. When an AC fails in those homes, replacing it with a new central heat pump will deliver both cooling and heating through the same ductwork. That new heat pump provides more efficient cooling and can also displace oil, propane or gas used for heating—a win for homeowners and the climate alike.

This “cool switch”—replacing an AC with a cold-climate central heat pump—can be straightforward and strategic. California and Colorado are already pursuing policies to drive central-AC-to-heat-pump swaps. Around 120,000 central ACs capable of cooling single-family homes are sold each year in New York State. Every new AC installed is a missed chance to decarbonize, locking in outdated equipment for 15 years or more. The benefits and barriers in New York State depend on a range of factors, like the climate, the condition of the home, the size of the heat pump and more. But if every New York homeowner replaced their central AC with a heat pump, electrifying winter heating could cut on-site residential sector emissions by up to 30 percent annually. 

New York’s Scoping Plan outlines ambitious steps to cut building sector emissions through electrification. The state’s vision to quadruple heat pump sales and achieve two million climate-friendly homes by 2030 is a call to action. In this report, we examine the opportunity, retrofit considerations and costs associated with AC-to-heat-pump swaps. We also detail the policy steps needed to advance this electrification pathway in New York homes so that as all central ACs age or fail, they are replaced with cold-climate heat pumps.

In this report

01

The AC replacement opportunity

Every year, New York homeowners replace tens of thousands of central AC units. Each replacement is a potential opportunity to accelerate heating electrification by switching to a central heat pump.

02

AC-to-heat-pump retrofits in New York

In New York, the climate is colder and the buildings are older than in much of the country. These realities are crucial to understanding and scaling central AC-to-heat pump swaps across the state.

03

The cost of AC-to-heat-pump swaps

The cost of swapping central ACs for heat pumps depends on the size of the heat pump and the nature of the retrofit. And generous state incentives can remove some or all of the cost.

04

Accelerating the cool switch in New York

Four policy steps can accelerate this cool switch and advance heating electrification in the 2.4 million homes with central AC in New York.

05

Appendix

Explore the endnotes and methodology for the Cool Switch report.