Replacing central ACs with heat pumps can accelerate electrification in New York State.
Every year, New York State homeowners replace tens of thousands of central AC units. By switching to a cold-climate central heat pump, each replacement could accelerate the transition to heating electrification.
Anything ACs can do, heat pumps can do better
Central heat pumps are similar to ACs but operate year-round to provide both cooling and heating.
In warmer months, both central heat pumps and ACs use refrigerant to cool air before delivering it to a home through a series of ducts. The technology is the same, and the equipment looks similar and uses about the same space and electrical capacity.
But heat pumps also provide heat. In shoulder seasons and winter months, central heat pumps operate like a central AC in reverse, using the same refrigerant to capture heat from outside air—even when it’s well below freezing—and move it inside through the same ductwork. That means in addition to replacing ACs, central heat pumps can replace fossil fuel-based heating, keeping residents comfortable while slashing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
An abundance of cold-climate heat pumps are suitable for homes and temperatures in every area of New York State. Many are listed on NEEP’s Cold-Climate Air Source Heat Pump List. They’re tested to perform well at 5℉, with some models providing dependable heat at temperatures below -20℉.
The benefits of switching from a central AC to a highly efficient cold-climate central heat pump are substantial and include:
- More efficient cooling than typical ACs;
- Big potential energy and carbon savings in winter;
- Straightforward retrofits that often use the same equipment footprint and ductwork;
- Quiet operation and increased resident comfort; and
- Lower maintenance costs with just one system for both heating and cooling.
AC-to-heat-pump swaps support New York’s climate progress
New York State’s landmark Climate Act sets nation-leading decarbonization targets. For buildings, the state’s Scoping Plan outlines a phased ban on the replacement of fossil fuel combustion equipment to reach 2050 GHG reduction targets—but central ACs don’t combust fossil fuels, so AC replacements are a largely unaddressed opportunity.
AC-to-heat-pump swaps could help New York reach the dual goals of two million climate-friendly homes and a quadrupling of heat pump sales by 2030, putting us on the way to 85 percent fewer GHG emissions by 2050.
But how big is this AC replacement opportunity in New York?
Figure 1
2.4 million homes are primed for a central heat pump
New York State has 5.3 million single-family homes, and about 2.4 million of them currently use central AC for cooling. That means about 45 percent of the state’s single-family homes have the existing equipment space and ductwork for an AC-to-heat-pump swap when a homeowner replaces an aging or failed central AC. This enormous market opportunity to switch out central ACs has the potential to shift home heating from on-site fossil fuels to an increasingly renewable electricity grid. If every home with central ACs replaced their aging and failed units with a heat pump that eliminates fossil fuel heating, New York could cut up to 30 percent of on-site residential GHGs.1
Every new central AC is a missed opportunity to get heat pumps into homes
The potential in New York State is clear: AC-to-heat-pump swaps are a largely untapped opportunity and represent a compelling pathway toward meeting the state’s climate goals. With Central ACs lasting up to 15 years or longer, the opportunity is significant: 2.4 million New York homes need to replace central ACs in the years ahead, and an estimated 850,000 old central ACs are due for replacement today. Every new AC installed is a missed chance to decarbonize that will lock in outdated equipment for another 15 years or more.